Gold’s Golden Run: Record Highs in 2024–25 and the Road Ahead to 2026

Gold has delivered an exceptional performance over the past two years, cementing its role as a cornerstone of defensive investment strategies. After averaging around $2,386 per ounce in 2024, a gain of roughly 23% year-over-year, the rally accelerated in 2025. By late summer 2025, spot gold was trading above $3,600 per ounce, marking one of the strongest multi-year surges in decades. Year-to-date in 2025, prices climbed nearly 38%, underscoring gold’s resilience amid shifting macroeconomic conditions.

This strength has flowed directly into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking bullion. In the U.S., SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU)—the world’s two largest gold ETFs—have both recorded gains in line with spot prices, each rising in the mid-30% range. Their liquidity and accessibility have made them key vehicles for investors seeking direct exposure. In Canada, CGL.TO and KILO.TO, both currency-hedged bullion funds, have also attracted attention, with strong inflows reflecting Canadian demand for gold as both a hedge and a portfolio stabilizer.

Several macroeconomic drivers explain gold’s record-breaking rally. First, inflation has eased in the U.S. to about 2.7% in mid-2025, but expectations of a softer Federal Reserve stance have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold. Anticipation of rate cuts in late 2025 and into 2026 has further fueled investor appetite. Second, central banks—most notably China—have sustained aggressive purchases, reinforcing confidence in long-term demand. By mid-2025, global central bank buying had already surpassed prior records, while ETF inflows exceeded $38 billion in the first half of the year alone. Finally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and a weaker U.S. dollar have amplified safe-haven demand, pushing gold into uncharted territory.

Looking forward to 2026, analysts remain optimistic. Goldman Sachs and other institutions forecast spot gold could test $3,700 by late 2025 and approach $4,000 by mid-2026 if current trends persist. While risks of profit-taking exist, the broader environment—marked by lower interest rates, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained central bank accumulation—suggests gold will remain a vital hedge.

For investors, ETFs like IAU, GLD, CGL.TO, and KILO.TO are expected to continue attracting strong flows, serving as efficient vehicles for exposure. As the global economy navigates slowing growth, shifting monetary policy, and structural uncertainty, gold’s role as both a portfolio diversifier and a safe-haven asset appears stronger than ever heading into 2026.